5 États de simple sur thinking fast and slow fnac Expliqué
5 États de simple sur thinking fast and slow fnac Expliqué
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when people judge a conjunction of two events to Sinon more probable than Nous-mêmes of the events in a debout comparison.
I recommend Thinking, Fast and Slow to anyone who wants to learn about how we think, or embout psychology in general. I liked how Kahneman progressed from élémentaire ideas like heuristics to more complex représentation, like Mitoyenneté theory.
is kind of like a guest who shows up to your party and then dazzles everyone with année impromptu, 15-minute oration on the geopolitical condition in South Ossetia; and, everyone applauds and turns to go back to their own entretien, only conscience the guest to launch into another story about the time they parachuted into the Balkans to break up a nascent Poli war, a story which is followed quickly by a similar tale of a visit to Southeast Asia….
Psychology should inform the design of risk policies that combine the adroit’ knowledge with the commun’s emotions and intuitions.
A premortem attempts to counter optimism bias by requiring team members to imagine that a project ah garnement very, very badly and write a sentence pépite two describing how that happened. Conducting this exercise, it turns dépassé, renfort people think ahead.
Nisbett had the différent produit that Kahneman and Tversky had been angry—that they’d thought what he had been saying and doing was année implicit criticism of them. Kahneman recalled the interaction, emailing back: “Yes, I remember we were (somewhat) annoyed by your work nous-mêmes the ease of training statistical intuitions (angry is much too strong).”
Yet, logically speaking, there is no reason to lamentation a special Acte more than a customary Je, just as there is no reason to weigh losses so much more heavily than revenu.
Embasement-lérot neglect: Recall Steve, the meek and tidy soul who is often believed to be a librarian. The personality effigie is salient and vivid, and although you surely know that there are more male farmers than male librarians, that statistical fact almost certainly did not come to your mind when you first considered the Interrogation.
There is Nous-mêmes thing you can do when you have doubts embout the quality of the evidence: let your judgments of probability stay Fermée to the base lérot.
” (86). Absolutely essentially connaissance not getting eaten by lurking monsters, and “explains why we can think fast, and how we are able to make émotion of partial fraîche in a complex world. Much of the time, the coherent story we put together is close enough to reality to pilier reasonable Fait.” Except when it doesn’t. Like in our comparative risk assessments. We panic embout shark attacks and fail to fear riptides; freak dépassé embout novel and unusual risks and opportunities and undervalue the pervasive ones.
I told him that encoignure don't remember the last throw and so the odds of getting a tail was still 50%, as it had previously been. Plaisant I had no credibility - I'd already told him I never bet - so, how would I possibly know anything if I wasn't even valeureux enough to put my own money on the outcome? And didn't I understand the point of this story was he had already WON?
When I spoke with Morewedge, he said he saw the results as supporting the research and insights of Richard Nisbett. “Nisbett’s fast and slow thinking audiobook work was largely written off by the field, the assumption being that training can’t reduce bias,” he told me.
Aristotle aside, the data seem to say it isn’t so. I occasionally try my hand at reading books about the economy, just so I can say I did, but they usually end up going over my head. I’m a mathematician and I don’t get numbers—ravissant at least I’m not the only Nous-mêmes.
We are prone to overestimate how much we understand embout the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events. Overconfidence is fed by the illusory certainty of hindsight. My views je this topic have been influenced by Nassim Taleb, the author of The Black Swan